Introduction
Tehran is experiencing an unprecedented water crisis. Satellite imagery analysis shows that key reservoirs that feed the capital are far below their typical seasonal variation. The Iranian president has warned that Iran has “no choice” but to move the location of the capital due to the water crisis. In the short term, water rationing has been imposed on some neighborhoods, and authorities may have to evacuate residents from Tehran. This crisis is driven by mounting demand for water, a historic drought, and persistent mismanagement. The Iranian government faces no easy way out, as necessary reforms would undercut the regime’s political economy and could risk triggering broad social unrest.
Drivers of the Crisis
Tehran’s worsening water crisis represents the chronicle of a dearth foretold. Relentlessly mounting demands, rising environmental pressures, and persistent policy deficiencies have long converged to impose unsustainable strains on the city’s water resources. However, as the capital navigates the current crisis, these underlying drivers of continuing water insecurity will remain.
Tehran lies in Iran’s central Markazi basin, a region encompassing over half the country’s land and the bulk of its population, but holding less than one-third of its freshwater resources. Tehran itself has doubled in size since the Islamic Revolution, growing from 4.9 million people in 1979 to 9.7 million today. It is projected to add another million inhabitants by 2035. Typically wealthier than their rural compatriots, urban residents demand and can afford more water-intensive services, such as dishwashers and washing machines. Tehran’s water use has risen even more sharply than its population, climbing from 346 million cubic meters (m3) per year in 1976 to 920 million m3 in 2001 to some 1.2 billion m3 now.
Rampant urbanization exacerbates the challenges facing water managers. Captured and corrupted by state elites, municipal authorities base zoning and development decisions on politics rather than sustainable spatial planning. Much of Tehran’s proliferating construction is unpermitted, violating development codes and the city’s master plan. Unregulated building severely strains the city’s water networks. Even as Tehran struggles with drought, one-third of the water entering its supply systems is lost to leaks and theft before reaching consumers. Uncontrolled expansion has also slashed the city’s vegetation cover by nearly 90 percent, replacing green spaces with impermeable surfaces that impede rainfall from infiltrating the soil to replenish rivers and groundwater aquifers. As urban demand has ballooned, built-up areas spread, and green space shriveled, Tehran’s water footprint has overwhelmed the carrying capacity of its water resources.
Mismanagement compounds the city’s water woes. Iran substantially subsidizes water services. Tariffs are set far below the cost of provision. In 2024, urban consumers paid only 52 percent of the actual costs for receiving their water, starving utilities of the resources to effectively maintain supply networks while encouraging over-consumption. Consequently, though planners base Tehran’s annual water allocation on an allotment of 130 liters a day per capita, 70 percent of the city’s consumers exceed this threshold, with average daily per capita use ranging from 200–400 liters.
Distorted economic signals warp the whole of Iran’s water sector, with significant ramifications for Tehran. Driven by a sovereign imperative to ensure national food security, the Islamic Republic heavily subsidizes agricultural water use too, which claims 90 percent of the nation’s total water demand. Depending on storage levels in its reservoirs, Tehran draws 30–60 percent of its water supply from the Tehran aquifer, a groundwater reserve it shares with surrounding farmers. Indeed, groundwater withdrawals for crop production account for half of Tehran Province’s total water footprint. But chronic over-exploitation, exacerbated by widespread illegal wells, is rapidly depleting this collective resource as well, with the region now irretrievably losing 101 million m3 of groundwater annually.
The current collision of supply and demand bodes ill for Tehran’s water future. Now in its fifth consecutive year, the ongoing drought afflicting the capital reflects rising trends in the duration and intensity of drought events across Iran and declining long-term precipitation around Tehran. Climate models foresee worsening droughts and dry spells for the city ahead. Policymakers and practitioners have warned for decades of Iran’s gathering water crisis. Robust reforms to strengthen water resilience can no longer wait.
Satellite Imagery Analysis
Tehran typically receives the bulk of its water supply from five main reservoirs situated around the city. Satellite imagery analysis confirms the structural pressures Iran faces by illustrating how severely Tehran’s main water sources have depleted. Using the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), a standard metric derived from Sentinel-2 imagery, the surface water extent in Tehran’s five major reservoirs between June and November 2025 were compared. The NDWI distinguishes water from surrounding land by analyzing how the surface reflects green and near-infrared light. It is important to note that the NDWI measures surface area rather than volume and does not capture the full hydrological picture. Even so, large decreases in surface extent indicate significant reservoir stress.
The June-to-November comparison captures both seasonal variation in these reservoirs and the additional depletion driven by Iran’s prolonged drought. June represents the post-snowmelt peak period when water levels are typically at their highest following winter precipitation and spring runoff, while November reflects conditions after the hot, dry summer months and before winter precipitation is supposed to begin. Although declines are expected during this interval, the magnitude of the decrease is notable.
The results show that four of the five reservoirs experienced steep decreases in surface water. Lar and Latyan shrank by more the 70 percent, far exceeding normal seasonal variation, while Taleqan and Amir Kabir declined by 28 percent and 20 percent, respectively. Only Mamloo remained relatively stable, at an 8.5 percent decrease. Such disparate changes are notable because these reservoirs do not feed a single unified supply; each serves different parts of the capital. Uneven depletion across these systems can therefore contribute to geographically unequal water availability across neighborhoods, compounding the crisis.
Implications and Government Choices
Tehran’s water problems have various knock-on effects. Excessive groundwater extraction is exacerbating land subsidence in the central plains, damaging roads and infrastructure. The decrease in water in dams has contributed to chronic electricity shortages, as Iran typically relies on hydropower for 4.4 percent of its electricity generation. The drought is also undermining Iran’s food security, which depends on domestic agricultural production. Parched land also increases the likelihood of sand and dust storms, which cost $150 billion annually to manage in the broader MENA region, and raises the risk of deadly flash flooding.
Tehran’s water crisis comes at a precarious time for the Iranian regime. Iran is still reeling from the war with Israel and the United States in June, which humiliated the supreme leader and deepened divisions within the regime. Recent statements from Israeli leaders have stoked fears of a renewed attack. In late September, the E3 (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) triggered the snapback mechanism, reimposing UN sanctions on Iran for the first time in a decade. Furthermore, a leadership transition is looming in Iran, as the supreme leader is 86 and experiencing health issues. Past water shortages around the country have previously fueled civil unrest and have already sparked limited protests in Tehran.
The Iranian regime has few palatable options to respond to the mounting water crisis. The government has reduced water pressure at night to reduce leakages and has begun rationing bottled mineral water in Tehran. It is now considering wider water rationing. President Masoud Pezeshkian said that evacuations of parts of Tehran could be necessary if Tehran does not receive rainfall soon. More dramatically, he warned that Iran now has “no choice” but to move its capital, as the central Iranian plateau is becoming uninhabitable and Tehran is becoming ecologically unsustainable.
Yet, other solutions would challenge Iran’s political economy and stability. It is difficult for the government to phase out water-intensive agriculture and industries. Efforts to combat the “water mafia,” particularly the excessive water usage of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters, would undercut a key revenue stream for the security apparatus, which helps secure the regime. Meanwhile, national food self-sufficiency is enshrined in the constitution (Article 43.9) and is seen as a strategy to withstand sanctions. Increasing water and electricity prices to help rationalize water consumption would also risk sparking public unrest. The scale of the current crisis will force the regime to act. The question is whether it can stomach the necessary reforms to keep Tehran habitable.
David Michel is the senior fellow for water security with the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Will Todman is the chief of staff of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at CSIS. Jennifer Jun is an associate fellow and project manager for satellite imagery analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at CSIS.
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