Commentary by David Michel , Will Todman , and Jennifer Jun Published November 25, 2025 Introduction Tehran is experiencing an unprecedented water crisis. Satellite imagery analysis shows that key reservoirs that feed the capital are far below their typical seasonal variation. The Iranian president has warned that Iran has “no choice” but to move the location of the capital due to the water crisis. In the short term, water rationing has been imposed on some neighborhoods, and authorities may have to evacuate residents from Tehran. This crisis is driven by mounting demand for water, a historic drought, and persistent mismanagement. The Iranian government faces no easy way out, as necessary reforms would undercut the regime’s political economy and could risk triggering broad social unrest. Drivers of the Crisis Tehran’s worsening water crisis represents the chronicle of a dearth foretold. Relentlessly mounting demands, rising environmental ...